A new solar cycle #25?

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Valery
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A new solar cycle #25?

Post by Valery » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:50 pm

Mark T. writes:

"In other news, and from this mornings AIA1700 image, a little ephemeral region up around 50N may indicate the first signs of solar cycle 25".

Do you think, Mark, this is really a sign of a new solar cycle and we can hope for slow solar activity rising???

Only last year there were a lot of larger spots and even gigantic flares (Sept 6).

Where can we read some scientific confirmation that such a sign is the new cycle predecessor? Anyone can ellaborate?


Thanks,

Valery.
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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by marktownley » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:10 am

Hi Valery.

Here is the AIA1700 image from yesterday morning.

Imagelatest_4096_1700 by Mark Townley, on Flickr

I've been following the work of my buddy Scott William McIntosh for many years now on his models for how solar cycles develop, he is the director of the High Altitude Observatory, he talks about how bands of magnetic activity migrate in latitude (and longitude) across the Sun. Our spots and active regions (from cycle 24) are all pretty much on the solar equator now, but we expect to see the signs of the next solar cycle (25) forming at latitudes of about 40/50 degrees, which is exactly where Saturdays ephemeral region formed. I asked Scott directly and his words as follows: "Likely, at the very northern edge of the band - little ephemeral region. The body of the band is at about 40 deg - based on other measures. If this is the first we’ll see stuff around this latitude and longitude for a while."

Do I think this is a sign of the new solar cycle, absolutely. A solar cycle will start off quiet with small scale features that will slowly build up - exactly what our larger aperture scopes will be good at spotting. The ephemeral region is just one of these small scale features, as the magnetic field strength increases then we get pores and spots. You only have to look on all the mainstream science websites at the moment who are touting the sun has no activity and is blank - well we all know from images here on solar chat this is not technically true; there's still quite a lot going on, if we look in just continuum the sun is pretty plain.

Cycle 24 is currently finishing faster than expected - see https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cy ... g-forecast so it isn't out of the question if the current solar cycle should start sooner, indeed, look at the graphic from the Royal Observatory Belgium, they have activity increasing as soon as the end of this year.
wolfjmms.png
wolfjmms.png (139.56 KiB) Viewed 368 times
Wouldn't it be nice if activity did increase then! This activity will initially manifest in these ephemeral regions and also bright points in CaK light at these higher latitudes like this weekend, we just need to keep a look out for them, i'm confident they will be there. I don't really think people were looking for this sort of stuff at the end of 23 / start of 24. Will be interesting to look back at this in a couple of months time.

Mark
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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by Derek Klepp » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:25 am

Thanks Mark I admit without activity I have become lazy.

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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by Valery » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:03 am

Derek, this is because of insufficient your main solar scope telescope caliber. With my C11 I always (!) see some activity worth to look at. The only I need is better seeing because as smaller the subject the better seeing it requires to show us all it's detail.


Mark, thanks a lot for this useful information. Looking for more update and new signs of the new cycle.


Valery
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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by christian viladrich » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:19 pm

Let's hope this is the begining of some activity :-)
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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by Montana » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:33 am

Very very interesting and well spotted Mark!
Alexandra


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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by pedro » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:48 pm

I was able to detect the high latitude AR

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sun_TV101_20180804_GS3-U3-28S4M_CaK.jpg
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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by Valery » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:31 pm

pedro wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:48 pm
I was able to detect the high latitude AR

Image
Congratulates, Pedro! Lets hope this will be Mark's and your's sun cycle 25 begin.


Valery
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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by PDB » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:05 pm

Hi

see also my post viewtopic.php?f=4&t=24880 (WL images - 540 nm)

Paul

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Re: A new solar cycle #25?

Post by pedro » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:42 pm

Image
SUN (20180804) WL, CaK & H-alpha (08:30 UTC). TV101 F/5.4, LUNT 1200 CaK Module, SM60, BF30, PGR GRASSHOPPE 3 GS3-U3-28S4M

It is visible in all wavelengths. Paul's HR WL image is great

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