Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

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Bob Yoesle
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Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by Bob Yoesle »

This past December 6, 2018, the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India (CESSI) reported that two of its scientists have made a prediction for the upcoming sunspot cycle. Solar physicist Dibyendu Nandi and his PhD student Prantika Bhowmik devised a new prediction technique, which simulates conditions both in the sun’s interior, where sunspots are created, and on the solar surface, where sunspots are ultimately destroyed.

Most earlier predictions have suggested the coming sunspot cycle 25 will be equal to or weaker than the current cycle 24. Some have even postulated an decades long decrease in solar activity similar to the Maunder Minimum. Based on their model, Nandi and Bhowmik postulate cycle 25 will be similar to or even stronger than 24. They expect the next cycle to start rising a year or so from now and to peak about 2024. Their work was published December 6, 2018, in the journal Nature Communications.

The model compared to past solar cycles:

Sunspot-activity-observation-dec6-e1544118001987.jpeg
Sunspot-activity-observation-dec6-e1544118001987.jpeg (57.59 KiB) Viewed 906 times

The prediction for the upcoming cycle 25:


Sunspot-activity-prediction-dec6-e1544118094194.jpeg
Sunspot-activity-prediction-dec6-e1544118094194.jpeg (43.06 KiB) Viewed 906 times

See: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07690-0


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Re: Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by MalVeauX »

Thanks Bob!

It'll be great as things ramp up towards 2024!

Very best,


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Re: Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by marktownley »

Thanks for sharing Bob!


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Re: Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by Montana »

That's the sort of encouraging news I like to hear :hamster:

Alexandra


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Re: Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by Carbon60 »

Let’s hope they’re right. Thanks for the info, Bob.

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Re: Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Hi everyone: indeed this is both potentially good news and very interesting science.

And here's another piece of independent supportive data:

"The development of the solar polar field strength throughout a solar sunspot cycle can be used to predict the magnitude of the next cycle and the peak of the current cycle. Polar field reversals typically occur within a year of sunspot maximum. It is not uncommon for the northern and southern polar fields to have significant differences in field strength and develop asynchronously over time. The Wilcox Solar Observatory has been collecting solar polar field data since 1975. Non-filtered data can be viewed in this plot. Below you will find a plot where only the filtered (by a 20 nHz lowpass filter) field strength data is displayed. Vertical lines representing field reversals and sunspot cycle min/max have been added to increase the potential usefulness of the plot.

The northern polar field changed polarity first in June 2012, then weakened and was near neutral in April 2014. The southern polar field reversed in July 2013. During the previous similar polarity reversal in 1989-1991 the northern polar field reversed 14 months prior to the southern polar field reversal.

As of December 2018 the strength of the polar fields hints at a cycle 25 with a magnitude similar to or slightly stronger than that of cycle 24."

polarfields.png
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Credit: http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html


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Re: Latest Cycle 25 Prediction

Post by eroel »

Bob:
Thanks for sharing.
Best regards,
Eric.


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