Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
- Carbon60
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Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
I am indebted to Mark T for all of his wonderful Ca II K image data throughout the entire cycle, so everything that follows is based on his work.
Thanks, Mark.
What I've done is simply measure the amount of light coloured plage on the solar disk (as a percentage of total disk area) as a function of time to illustrate the ebb and flow of plage over the entire 24th cycle. For this I used a program called Image J and set the upper and lower lightness thresholds for each individual image in order to isolate the regions of interest (light coloured plage). It isn't perfect and it would be nice to have a plug-in specifically for this type of analysis, correcting for the foreshortening of the features closer to the edge of the disk, but given that all of the images suffer from this same 'aberration' then maybe it isn't too important anyhow.
Here's an example of one of Mark's images with the threshold gate applied. The plage regions are shown in green. Basically Image J returns the percentage of pixels in green over the whole image (including the black background). Setting the lower threshold to exclude the black background now turns the black to blue and Image J returns the percentage of the image pixels that are below this threshold. A simple calculation allows the green pixel population to be obtained from the entire population of pixels on the disk, excluding the background.
This is the resulting plot over time from 2010 until the present
which is in pretty good agreement with the predictions for cycle 24 shown below (red line):
and the official sunspot counts for cycle 24:
Here are some of Mark's images from various periods over this cycle.
2010 2014 2015
2016 and 2018 It will be interesting to continue this type of analysis during cycle 25 to mark its progress over the coming years.
Thanks for looking.
Stu.
Thanks, Mark.
What I've done is simply measure the amount of light coloured plage on the solar disk (as a percentage of total disk area) as a function of time to illustrate the ebb and flow of plage over the entire 24th cycle. For this I used a program called Image J and set the upper and lower lightness thresholds for each individual image in order to isolate the regions of interest (light coloured plage). It isn't perfect and it would be nice to have a plug-in specifically for this type of analysis, correcting for the foreshortening of the features closer to the edge of the disk, but given that all of the images suffer from this same 'aberration' then maybe it isn't too important anyhow.
Here's an example of one of Mark's images with the threshold gate applied. The plage regions are shown in green. Basically Image J returns the percentage of pixels in green over the whole image (including the black background). Setting the lower threshold to exclude the black background now turns the black to blue and Image J returns the percentage of the image pixels that are below this threshold. A simple calculation allows the green pixel population to be obtained from the entire population of pixels on the disk, excluding the background.
This is the resulting plot over time from 2010 until the present
which is in pretty good agreement with the predictions for cycle 24 shown below (red line):
and the official sunspot counts for cycle 24:
Here are some of Mark's images from various periods over this cycle.
2010 2014 2015
2016 and 2018 It will be interesting to continue this type of analysis during cycle 25 to mark its progress over the coming years.
Thanks for looking.
Stu.
H-alpha, WL and Ca II K imaging kit for various image scales.
Fluxgate Magnetometers (1s and 150s Cadence).
Radio meteor detector.
More images at http://www.flickr.com/photos/solarcarbon60/
Fluxgate Magnetometers (1s and 150s Cadence).
Radio meteor detector.
More images at http://www.flickr.com/photos/solarcarbon60/
- Valery
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Thanks, Stue and Mark
Really titanic work!
Valery
Really titanic work!
Valery
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
That is an amazing and heavy lift. Well done sir.
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Aeries D-ERF
Quark Chromosphere f27 native, (f14 when focal reduced)
Mallincam .5x focal reducer (large format)
12nm Filter
ZWO174 (IMX249 chip 5um)
Huge Sense of Adventure Viewing Creation
- marktownley
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
That's way cool Stu! Like the method too!
http://brierleyhillsolar.blogspot.co.uk/
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Awesome work and analysis of the images Stu...very impressive
Brian
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Maple Ridge Observatory
Cambray, ON Canada
Photos: https://www.flickr.com/photos/185395281@N08/albums
10'x15 Roll-off Roof Observatory
Takahashi EM400 Mount carrying:
C14 + Lunt 80ED
Deep Sky Work - ASI294MM Pro+EFW 7x36/Canon 60D (Ha mod), ONAG
Planetary Work - SBIG CFW10, ASI462MM
2.2m Diameter Dome
iOptron CEM70G Mount carrying:
Orion EON 130ED, f7 OTA for Day & Night Use
Ha Setup: Lunt LS80PT/LS75FHa/B1200Ha + Home Brew Lunt Double Stack/B1800Ha on the Orion OTA + Daystar Quantum
WL, G-Band & CaK Setup: Lunt Wedge & Lunt B1800CaK, Baader K-Line and Altair 2nm G-Band filter
ASI1600MM, ASI432MM, ASI294MM Pro, ASI174MM, ASI462MM
- Montana
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
That sure is a good project, fantastic results too, well done to you both a very enjoyable read.
Alexandra
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- Carbon60
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Many thanks, everyone. We can look at building up a similar database during cycle 25. It will take a while
Stu.
Stu.
H-alpha, WL and Ca II K imaging kit for various image scales.
Fluxgate Magnetometers (1s and 150s Cadence).
Radio meteor detector.
More images at http://www.flickr.com/photos/solarcarbon60/
Fluxgate Magnetometers (1s and 150s Cadence).
Radio meteor detector.
More images at http://www.flickr.com/photos/solarcarbon60/
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Impressive work Stu, well done
Pedro Re'
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
A very interesting and well thought out analysis. Thank you both, Stu and Mark.
Franco
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Stu:
A fantastic and superb work done.
Best regards and thanks for sharing it.
Eric.
A fantastic and superb work done.
Best regards and thanks for sharing it.
Eric.
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Superb work and analyse Stu.
paul
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Re: Plage Progression Through Cycle 24
Fantastic work, Stu, much interesting indeed.
Raf
My solar images and reports with articles on solar equipment
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