OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

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OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by EGRAY_OBSERVATORY »

This, unlike so many other scaring-reports, is one that almost certainly will occur in the future, but when we are unlikely to know about - until it happens.

As Murphy's Law states "If it can happen, it will happen."

As being a very long-term user of radio-communications and also aviation and flying, I have always been aware of the risk of relying solely on GPS for everyday purposes in our lives on Earth, so I agree with this scenario, that our lovely Sun can also cause us an immense and even un-repairable damage - sometime in the nearer-future than just that known about in billions of years...

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... ls/486824/

Well-worth a read, but don't get dis-heartened or scared, as with so many things - until it happens there's not much more that can be done, except that suggested in this article...

Terry


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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by MAURITS »

Nice to read Terry, and no I am not scared 😄


Regards,
Maurits

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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by Valery »

I don't believe that modern sattelites were designed and made without a huge protection against solar flares attacks.
Militaries are well aware of such potential risks and they take this into account in their technical requirements for the equipment they order from avia-space companies.

About Murphy law. It is possible that it happen that I become a billionare or at least multi millionare. But this will never happen. :)
We remember about this law when something happen and looks according Murphy law expectations.


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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by EGRAY_OBSERVATORY »

Cheers Maurits, hopefully won't happen any time soon.

You might be right Valery, but the civilian ones is another matter...

Terry


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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Examples of large solar flares
File:NASA's Fermi Detects the Highest-Energy Light from a Solar Flare.ogvPlay media
Short narrated video about Fermi's observations of the highest-energy light ever associated with an eruption on the Sun as of March 2012
File:AR1515 Releases X1.1 Class Flare.ogvPlay media
Active Region 1515 released an X1.1 class flare from the lower right of the Sun on July 6, 2012, peaking at 7:08 PM EDT. This flare caused a radio blackout, labeled as an R3 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations scale that goes from R1 to R5.
Space weather—March 2012.[25]
Main article: List of solar storms

The most powerful flare ever observed was the first one to be observed,[26] on September 1, 1859, and was reported by British astronomer Richard Carrington and independently by an observer named Richard Hodgson. The event is named the Solar storm of 1859, or the "Carrington event". The flare was visible to a naked eye (in white light), and produced stunning auroras down to tropical latitudes such as Cuba or Hawaii, and set telegraph systems on fire.[27] The flare left a trace in Greenland ice in the form of nitrates and beryllium-10, which allow its strength to be measured today.[28] Cliver and Svalgaard[29] reconstructed the effects of this flare and compared with other events of the last 150 years. In their words: "While the 1859 event has close rivals or superiors in each of the above categories of space weather activity, it is the only documented event of the last ∼150 years that appears at or near the top of all of the lists." The intensity of the flare has been estimated to be around X50.[30]

The ultra-fast coronal mass ejection of August 1972 is suspected of triggering magnetic fuses on naval mines during the Vietnam War, and would have been a life-threatening event to Apollo astronauts if it had occurred during a mission to the Moon.[31][32]

In modern times, the largest solar flare measured with instruments occurred on November 4, 2003. This event saturated the GOES detectors, and because of this its classification is only approximate. Initially, extrapolating the GOES curve, it was estimated to be X28.[33] Later analysis of the ionospheric effects suggested increasing this estimate to X45.[34] This event produced the first clear evidence of a new spectral component above 100 GHz.[35]

Other large solar flares also occurred on April 2, 2001 (X20),[36] October 28, 2003 (X17.2 and 10),[37] September 7, 2005 (X17),[36] February 17, 2011 (X2),[38][39][40] August 9, 2011 (X6.9),[41][42] March 7, 2012 (X5.4),[43][44] July 6, 2012 (X1.1).[45] On July 6, 2012, a solar storm hit just after midnight UK time,[46] when an X1.1 solar flare fired out of the AR1515 sunspot. Another X1.4 solar flare from AR 1520 region of the Sun,[47] second in the week, reached the Earth on July 15, 2012[48] with a geomagnetic storm of G1–G2 level.[49][50] A X1.8-class flare was recorded on October 24, 2012.[51] There has been major solar flare activity in early 2013, notably within a 48-hour period starting on May 12, 2013, a total of four X-class solar flares were emitted ranging from an X1.2 and upwards of an X3.2,[52] the latter of which was one of the largest year 2013 flares.[53][54] Departing sunspot complex AR2035-AR2046 erupted on April 25, 2014 at 0032 UT, producing a strong X1.3-class solar flare and an HF communications blackout on the day-side of Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the explosion. The Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an X9.3-class flare at around 1200 UTC on September 6, 2017.[55]

On July 23, 2012, a massive, potentially damaging,[vague] solar storm (solar flare, coronal mass ejection and electromagnetic radiation) barely missed Earth.[56][57] In 2014, Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published a paper in which he attempted to calculate the odds of a similar solar storm hitting Earth within the next 10 years, by extrapolating records of past solar storms from the 1960s to the present day. He concluded that there may be as much as a 12% chance of such an event occurring.[56] _Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare


It's coming. We narrowly escaped it in 2003 and in 2012. A Carrington Class event would be like an EMP strike. It would do a lot of electronic damage. Our computer infrastructure would probably be devastated and our car computers would probably be shorted out. Then there is the power grid and of course GPS.

Think, one of us could see or image the solar flare that does us in. And think WoW, oh F*# *>k before the lights go out.

We gotta moderate what we wish for...

James


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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by viewer »

Glad I don't need electricity for observing...would have to do it all by myself, no GONG...

Viewing that flare as it happens would be like winning the big (bad) lottery.


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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by marktownley »

Interesting article Terry!


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Re: OUR SUN & THE GPS SATELLITE-SYSTEM - SCARY BUT TRUE!!!

Post by EGRAY_OBSERVATORY »

Thank you Mark and with James's excellent and informative add-on, really does show that there is much to be considered, as we don't know anywhere enough to deal with such a situation - should it occur sooner or later and now would affect our 21st Century - lift-styles...

In fact few people really realise that the effects on ground, sea, air and space-travel can so-significantly be affected by a monster-radiation event from our Sun or even Deep Space, which regularly bombards Earth. We know some things, but an inevitable massive-event will occur eventually and some of us will possibly be around to not-only see it, but feel its' effects on our modern life-styles.

Let's face-it Corona Virus/COVID19 has shown us that we are just mere mortals that can (have) suffered from that event alone, so we must be aware that other things can take hold more quickly/immediately with a blast from our all-important life-giving heat and light - "Sol" !!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare (as James has just posted) does give further details and no-doubt other web-links (FROM TRUSTED SOURCES ONLY), would likely give more facts etc...

I must add, that I was trained in my Air Force training as to the effects of various types of radiation from man-made devices, so certainly know a little about possible effects on the human-race and systems on Earth, which can equally apply to Solar-Radiation. Let alone, my over a half-century radio experiences/knowledge, which applies to the GPS system and the use of in air-travel and whilst I'm flying, does tell me that there is (or should be) more to learn and deal with such a "Monster-Solar Event" - when it occurs.

As said previously, "No need to get scared about such an event, as when it happens - is the only time to worry and/or subsequently get scared."

Thanks vm James.
Thanks "viewer" for reading and giving your interesting reply.

Terry


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