SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

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SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Spaceweather.com has again over-hyped recent solar activity, stating on June 6:

“Solar Cycle 25 is exceeding predictions. Sunspot numbers in May 2022 were the highest in almost 8 years, more than doubling NOAA's official forecast.” Emphasis added. The story links to the 2019 NOAA prediction which is uncorrected for the early start to Cycle 25 and the upper range of the prediction curve of +10:
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot.png
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot.png (44.72 KiB) Viewed 1327 times

First, it is bad science to compare an actual monthly average to the predicted smoothed monthly number to make a broad long-term prediction. If I did this in a science class paper, I'd get a failing grade.

Second, here's what the actual consensus forecast states:
Upton Cycle 25 consensus.jpg
Upton Cycle 25 consensus.jpg (73.05 KiB) Viewed 1327 times

The original 2019 NOAA/ISES Solar Panel had a prediction for a Cycle 25 start in 2020, and a peak of 115 +/- 10 in 2025. Cycle 25 actually started in late 2019, and will likely peak in late 2024. The gray curve is the corrected -6 month early start prediction at the +10 level, which as shown above is a set of parameters for the NOAA/ISES predictions:
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot (2)circled peaks.png
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot (2)circled peaks.png (46.07 KiB) Viewed 1327 times

Spaceweather.com goes on to say “even if Solar Cycle 25 turns out to be merely average, it will still far exceed previously low expectations.” Emphasis added. There is currently no justification for this statement. As indicated above, on a month-to-month time scale, the solar cycle is quite variable – you can see that it is extremely common to get very large spikes in sunspot activity. It generally takes months of activity to generate a suitable monthly average curve, and it appears the cycle is sitting near the top of the earlier -6 month +10 prediction.

Hathaway and Upton have now revised their prediction to 130 +/-, which is only incrementally larger than the panel's highest prediction of 125 (i.e. 115+10).
SC25 predictions Hathawy & Upton sm.jpg
SC25 predictions Hathawy & Upton sm.jpg (270.91 KiB) Viewed 1327 times

Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be marginally larger than Cycle 24 – which is great news in and of itself – but there is no need to exaggerate the situation. Cycle 25 currently remains on track to be a relatively weak cycle.

For reference, Cycle 23 (a moderate cycle) had a peak of about 180; large solar cycles (such as Cycle 21) have a peak closer to about 250.

ises-solar-cycle-sunspot.jpg
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot.jpg (117.22 KiB) Viewed 1327 times
Last edited by Bob Yoesle on Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:38 am, edited 3 times in total.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by pedro »

very interesting stuff Bob, thanks for sharing


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by rsfoto »

Hi Bob,

Thanks and in 2033 we all will be smarter :lol: :lol: :lol:


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by MAURITS »

Thanks for sharing Bob.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Bob,
Thanks for setting the prediction data straight.

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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by marktownley »

Thanks Bob, appreciate these updates.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by christian viladrich »

Thanks for the info and perspective Bob !!


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by arnedanielsen »

Thanks for collecting and presenting this updated info, Bob!

Best regards,
Arne


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Thanks everyone.

To focus on the data, one can go to the the NOAA Solar Cycle Progression tool and zoom in on the relevant data points and curves:


SC25 predictions orig v  -6+10.png
SC25 predictions orig v -6+10.png (128.79 KiB) Viewed 1237 times


As one can see there is a good correlation of the smoothed monthly sunspot curve to the - 6 month and +10 ISES official Consensus Prediction for Solar Cycle 25. It has been clearly established that Solar Cycle 25 started in late 2019, not April 2020.

Using the original prediction start date of April 2020, and then the original sunspot number prediction curve, to make the claims that spaceweather.com does, is clearly erroneous.

The author of spaceweather.com - Dr. Tony Phillips - is an astronomer with a PhD. who one would expect to know the relevant details and facts.

commission v omission.jpg
commission v omission.jpg (227.74 KiB) Viewed 1237 times

If a non-scientist like myself can easily figure this out, it becomes difficult to understand why someone with a PhD in astronomy and who hosts a solar activity website can't. I will leave it to the reader to judge if the errors are of commission or omission.

error_of_omission-cmomission w SW header sm.jpg
error_of_omission-cmomission w SW header sm.jpg (209.89 KiB) Viewed 1237 times

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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

But Bob, you ARE a scientist. An amateur who does what he does for the love of it. Not primarily for the money.

But yes, as a PhD he should know...

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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by rsfoto »

The author of spaceweather.com - Dr. Tony Phillips - is an astronomer with a PhD. who one would expect to know the relevant details and facts.
I think he wants to bring more people to this and so maybe he needs to make it a bit sensationalist like some daily News reporters do ¿? :roll: and so perhaps some facts get distorted ...

IMHO


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Hi Rainer,

Sensationalism in order to “popularize” science where facts get distorted doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

I doubt Carl Sagan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Sir Patrick Moore, Brian Greene, or Bill Nye would engage in such a level of what appears to be deliberate misrepresentation to popularize an aspect of science. To me this seems the antithesis of science. Stating clouds are caused by cow eructation may create a large amount of public interest and debate - but it would be demonstrably false.

Ultimately this appears to be a “the ends justify the means” argument, and can lead to such evils as we see often in politics. Science shouldn’t be based on what one wants to be more popular or beneficial to one's prejudices. It should rest on the bedrock of actual facts as best they are known. If Phillips wanted to say there is an alternative prediction based on the "termination event" theory that has a much higher sunspot number than the Consensus Prediction, he could have easily made that point. Instead he's acting as a biased advocate in using a demonstrably false data set based on an out-of-date SC25 onset to lend the alternative prediction credence where none actually exists – at least for now. Moreover, he is casting doubt on a legitimate Consensus Prediction that so far is pretty spot-on.

And where does one draw the line? Believing something just because either you think it’s justified or it makes you feel good or satisfies a personal need can lead to “the road to Hades is paved with good intentions.”

Finally, creating skepticism of well-established science has led to climate change denial and a host of other problems.

Best wishes,

Bob


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Well said Bob!


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by christian viladrich »

Bob Yoesle wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:06 am Hi Rainer,

Sensationalism in order to “popularize” science where facts get distorted doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

I doubt Carl Sagan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Sir Patrick Moore, Brian Greene, or Bill Nye would engage in such a level of what appears to be deliberate misrepresentation to popularize an aspect of science. To me this seems the antithesis of science. Stating clouds are caused by cow eructation may create a large amount of public interest and debate - but it would be demonstrably false.

Ultimately this appears to be a “the ends justify the means” argument, and can lead to such evils as we see often in politics. Science shouldn’t be based on what one wants to be more popular or beneficial to one's prejudices. It should rest on the bedrock of actual facts as best they are known. If Phillips wanted to say there is an alternative prediction based on the "termination event" theory that has a much higher sunspot number than the Consensus Prediction, he could have easily made that point. Instead he's acting as a biased advocate in using a demonstrably false data set based on an out-of-date SC25 onset to lend the alternative prediction credence where none actually exists – at least for now. Moreover, he is casting doubt on a legitimate Consensus Prediction that so far is pretty spot-on.

And where does one draw the line? Believing something just because either you think it’s justified or it makes you feel good or satisfies a personal need can lead to “the road to Hades is paved with good intentions.”

Finally, creating skepticism of well-established science has led to climate change denial and a host of other problems.

Best wishes,

Bob
I fully agree Bob !


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by rsfoto »

Bob Yoesle wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:06 am Hi Rainer,

Sensationalism in order to “popularize” science where facts get distorted doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.

I doubt Carl Sagan, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Sir Patrick Moore, Brian Greene, or Bill Nye would engage in such a level of what appears to be deliberate misrepresentation to popularize an aspect of science. To me this seems the antithesis of science. Stating clouds are caused by cow eructation may create a large amount of public interest and debate - but it would be demonstrably false.

Ultimately this appears to be a “the ends justify the means” argument, and can lead to such evils as we see often in politics. Science shouldn’t be based on what one wants to be more popular or beneficial to one's prejudices. It should rest on the bedrock of actual facts as best they are known. If Phillips wanted to say there is an alternative prediction based on the "termination event" theory that has a much higher sunspot number than the Consensus Prediction, he could have easily made that point. Instead he's acting as a biased advocate in using a demonstrably false data set based on an out-of-date SC25 onset to lend the alternative prediction credence where none actually exists – at least for now. Moreover, he is casting doubt on a legitimate Consensus Prediction that so far is pretty spot-on.

And where does one draw the line? Believing something just because either you think it’s justified or it makes you feel good or satisfies a personal need can lead to “the road to Hades is paved with good intentions.”

Finally, creating skepticism of well-established science has led to climate change denial and a host of other problems.

Best wishes,

Bob
Hi Bob,

I fully agree with you ... I did by no means justify his acting with my comment ...

The question raises here ... How to draw his attention to this ?


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by eroel »

Bob:
Thanks for the updates.
Best regards,
Eric.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

The question raises here ... How to draw his attention to this ?
Good question.

I emailed Dr. Phillips earlier this year when he first published the erroneous plots and conclusions on spaceweather.com. I received no response. I infer his subsequent errors are of omission.

I assume Dr. Phillips is also aware that SC25 started earlier than the April 2020 prediction - a widely know fact in the professional solar science community, and that the sunspot number prediction had a +/- 10 confidence interval, where such confidence intervals are ubiquitous in science data presentations.

Therefore it is reasonable to conclude the errors are of omission, and are likely deliberate for the "sensationalistic" reasons cited previously.

Best wishes,

Bob


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by rsfoto »

Bob Yoesle wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 2:52 pm
The question raises here ... How to draw his attention to this ?
Good question.

I emailed Dr. Phillips earlier this year when he first published the erroneous plots and conclusions on spaceweather.com. I received no response. I infer his subsequent errors are of omission.

I assume Dr. Phillips is also aware that SC25 started earlier than the April 2020 prediction - a widely know fact in the professional solar science community, and that the sunspot number prediction had a +/- 10 confidence interval, where such confidence intervals are ubiquitous in science data presentations.

Therefore it is reasonable to conclude the errors are of omission, and are likely deliberate for the "sensationalistic" reasons cited previously.

Best wishes,

Bob
What a pity ...


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Bob,
Where are you finding the Solar Cycle 25 prediction data on SpaceWeather.com?

https://spaceweather.com/

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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by OneDegreeNorth »

DeepSolar64 wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:37 pm Bob,
Where are you finding the Solar Cycle 25 prediction data on SpaceWeather.com?

https://spaceweather.com/

James
You have to go to the archive (June 6 2022).

https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?vi ... &year=2022


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Hi James,

You can find archived spaceweather.com pages with the archive tool:

SW.COM Archives.jpg
SW.COM Archives.jpg (208.82 KiB) Viewed 1071 times

Here's where I became aware spaceweather.com was showing an erroneous SC25 prediction curve on January 11:

Spaceweather.com Jan 11 2022.jpg
Spaceweather.com Jan 11 2022.jpg (394.35 KiB) Viewed 1071 times

Note that Dr. Phillips directs one to the "interactive version" of the data plot, which actually comes from the NOAA Solar Cycle Progression page:

NOAA SWPC SC progression.jpg
NOAA SWPC SC progression.jpg (419.76 KiB) Viewed 1071 times

So I did play around, as well as remembering Dr. Upton's SC25 video presentation that confirmed the confidence intervals for the prediction. I then sent an email to Dr. Phillips after his post informing him that the NOAA-NASA-ISES Consensus Official Prediction has a +/- 6 month start date and a +/- 10 value around the 115 sunspot maximum nominal value. There was no response, and Dr. Phillips continues to use the wrong start date and sunspot numbers. You can see that it is very straightforward to select the appropriate SC25 "official prediction" start date (-6 months) and activity level (+10) using the "Add/Remove Error Bars" tool. Failing to use that tool to select the correct start date and prediction level is a basic and obvious error that Dr. Phillips is making.

Again, it is difficult to believe this is unknown to Dr. Phillips.

But at least now you know ;>)

Best wishes,

Bob
Last edited by Bob Yoesle on Wed Jun 15, 2022 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Thanks ODN and Bob. 👍🏻


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by daniele_bonfiglio »

Dear Bob, thank you for the very interesting and critical analysis.
I have found this news from 2019 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cy ... ast-update showing the "consensus prediction" that had been just released by the NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel. As you said, the +-10 SSN and +-6 months ranges of uncertainties were clearly stated.
By the way, what do you think of the "unconvential" prediction method by McIntosh et al? (as mentioned for instance here https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02 ... s-arrived/ )
Best, Daniele


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by rsfoto »

daniele_bonfiglio wrote: Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:51 pm Dear Bob, thank you for the very interesting and critical analysis.
I have found this news from 2019 https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cy ... ast-update showing the "consensus prediction" that had been just released by the NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel. As you said, the +-10 SSN and +-6 months ranges of uncertainties were clearly stated.
By the way, what do you think of the "unconvential" prediction method by McIntosh et al? (as mentioned for instance here https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02 ... s-arrived/ )
Best, Daniele
Hi Daniele,

Very interesting reading about the Terminator Event ...


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Gordon Ewen »

Bob, this is a very interesting thread. It's disappointing that incorrect information appears on Spaceweather but it exemplifies an all too common trait in the world today. Somewhat skeptically, my starting point when seeing/hearing some story is "whats the presenter/authors agenda"? All too often facts are distorted or ignored and sensational headlines gets views/likes.
I trained and worked in a science based industry for many years and I'm told I'm rather anal(ytical) but I believe it helps me have a more balanced view of the world. There is a lot of hype out there and it's important to see through it.
Thanks for providing the report.
Gordon


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

For the month of June the averaged sunspot number fell from May's high to meet the Cycle 25 start date shown by the - 6 month and + 10 sunspot prediction curve:


ises-solar-cycle-sunspot 2 7 2022.png
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot 2 7 2022.png (140.67 KiB) Viewed 676 times


Using the accurate start date and the higher value confidence interval, the Official ISES Prediction appears to remain quite valid; contrary to the sensationalism propagated in the tabloid media.

By the way, what do you think of the "unconvential" prediction method by McIntosh et al? (as mentioned for instance here https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02 ... s-arrived/ )
Best, Daniele
Hi Daniele,

So far the data is neutral with regard to the "Termination" theory, with the lower confidence interval of the "termination" theory being nearly identical to the upper confidence level of the ISES prediction. By the end of the year, we should know if Cycle 25 is progressing along the slightly higher ISES prediction or the median of the "new theory" prediction. But to be honest, and as much as I like the movies, I wasn't impressed by the Terminator movie imagery that accompanied the prediction, as it seems rather tabloid in and of itself. And the twitter feed explanation... not very elucidating. If I were to bet real money, I'd go with the ISES prediction, which seems to be based on more solid theoretical ground with good reliability.


Bob


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Right on prediction it seems to be.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Very close indeed - actual 70.5, predicted 70.0 (using the correct start date and confidence variation level ;-)


ISES June 2022.jpg
ISES June 2022.jpg (372.54 KiB) Viewed 634 times

Curiously, I haven't seen this downward trend from the earlier over-hyped numbers of the previous months mentioned on SW.com :?:

Facts SM.jpg
Facts SM.jpg (110.89 KiB) Viewed 620 times

As of now the smoothed monthly values are trending slightly higher than the relevant ISES prediction, and have led Hathaway and Upton to revise their prediction with a slightly higher Cycle 25 maximum (132 versus 125).

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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by daniele_bonfiglio »

Bob Yoesle wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:29 pm As of now the smoothed monthly values are trending slightly higher than the relevant ISES prediction, and have led Hathaway and Upton to revise =http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts ... prediction with a slightly higher Cycle 25 maximum (132 versus 125).

Bob
Dear Bob,
thank you for the very interesting link to the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction. I have a couple of questions:
1) you mention a revised Cycle 25 maximum of 132 but in this text file http://solarcyclescience.com/bin/predictSSN.txt at the link you provided, the predicted maximum is just below 130. Where did you take the 132 value?
2) what is the relation (if any) between the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction and the -6 month / +10 SSN corrected ISES prediction? I mean, did the ISES panel make use of the Hathaway and Upton model?

By the way, since June I am in charge of a monthly solar activity update for the Italian astronomy magazine Coelum (the latin word for sky).
This is what I wrote for the June report: https://www.coelum.com/appuntamenti/cie ... uglio-2022 (sorry it's written in Italian, but I think you can Google translate it). As you can see I showed the prediction based on the "terminator event" but I also mentioned the confidence interval (+-10 SSN) of the "official" ISES prediction.
For the July report that I am going to prepare in a few days, I plan to show the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction so thank you very much for your help on this! :bow2

Best,
Daniele


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Good news!

NOAA has finally adjusted their Solar Cycle Progression page to open with the correct early start and + 10 average sunspot number prediction curve, not the invalid start and mean prediction curve:
The forecast for the current solar cycle is given by the grey line. This represents the upper range issued by the prediction panel in 2019 (see "Details"), starting 6 months earlier and with a higher amplitude (+10) relative to the mean prediction. The initial progression of Cycle 25 is observed to best match this upper bound.
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot revised.png
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot revised.png (145.26 KiB) Viewed 522 times

It appears to help to be a squeaky wheel...


Dear Bob,
thank you for the very interesting link to the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction. I have a couple of questions:
1) you mention a revised Cycle 25 maximum of 132 but in this text file http://solarcyclescience.com/bin/predictSSN.txt at the link you provided, the predicted maximum is just below 130. Where did you take the 132 value?
2) what is the relation (if any) between the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction and the -6 month / +10 SSN corrected ISES prediction? I mean, did the ISES panel make use of the Hathaway and Upton model?
Hi Daniele,

1) The text file shows a peak mean of 129.5, and Hathaway and Upton also got a peak mean of 132 using geomagnetic activity precursors as described here. You'd have to ask them to find out why there is a difference. Be that as it may, the two predictions are pretty close ;-)

2) I believe the +/- 6 month and +/- 10 SSN have been a feature of the prediction confidence intervals for past cycles as well. Indeed, the earlier prediction graphs appear to have +/- 30 SSN upper and lower limits (see graph below).

I also believe Hathaway and Upton are both members of the ISES prediction panel, and Hathaway has been - until he retired - one of the main figures at NASA Marshall Spaceflight & Ames Research Center solar physics staff and responsible for these graphs over the years:

Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.gif
Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.gif (579.48 KiB) Viewed 522 times
PredictSSN_23_24_25.jpg
PredictSSN_23_24_25.jpg (516.95 KiB) Viewed 522 times
Last edited by Bob Yoesle on Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

It looks like SS25 is predicted to outdo SS24 but is still well short of SS23. Time will tell.

JP


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by marktownley »

Thanks for the updates!


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by AJamesB »


Therefore it is reasonable to conclude the errors are of omission, and are likely deliberate for the "sensationalistic" reasons cited previously.


Bob
I wonder if this person has a boss or board they report too that would like to know an employee is distorting data, and hence potentially eroding trust in their organization?

Unfortunately I've seen this all to much, especially among amatuer astro peeps trying to make a name for themselves or trying to make money off of astrophotography. So, so many deceitful and misleading click-baity title posts I've come acrossed, and even one going so far as to convince a local news station they'd "taken the most detailed image of the sun EVER", as though NASA didn't even exist, lol. And when you try to respectfully correct the mininformation, you get downvoted, yelled at, have a myriad of 'justifications' thrown at you (such as "its okay since it creates more awareness about science!" and the like), etc etc.

Sad that too many are willing to exchange personal integrity and trustworthiness in exchange for a little more attention or money, but that is the world we live in.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by daniele_bonfiglio »

Dear Bob (and all),
the last few months of solar activity seem to confirm the robustness of the Hathaway and Upton prediction. I am curious: do you have other interesting news on this topic?
Best,
Daniele
PredictSSN_23_24_25.png
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