Using the accurate start date and the higher value confidence interval, the Official ISES Prediction appears to remain quite valid; contrary to the sensationalism propagated in the tabloid media.
Hi Daniele,By the way, what do you think of the "unconvential" prediction method by McIntosh et al? (as mentioned for instance here https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02 ... s-arrived/ )
Best, Daniele
So far the data is neutral with regard to the "Termination" theory, with the lower confidence interval of the "termination" theory being nearly identical to the upper confidence level of the ISES prediction. By the end of the year, we should know if Cycle 25 is progressing along the slightly higher ISES prediction or the median of the "new theory" prediction. But to be honest, and as much as I like the movies, I wasn't impressed by the Terminator movie imagery that accompanied the prediction, as it seems rather tabloid in and of itself. And the twitter feed explanation... not very elucidating. If I were to bet real money, I'd go with the ISES prediction, which seems to be based on more solid theoretical ground with good reliability.
Bob