SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

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Bob Yoesle
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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

For the month of June the averaged sunspot number fell from May's high to meet the Cycle 25 start date shown by the - 6 month and + 10 sunspot prediction curve:


ises-solar-cycle-sunspot 2 7 2022.png
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot 2 7 2022.png (140.67 KiB) Viewed 671 times


Using the accurate start date and the higher value confidence interval, the Official ISES Prediction appears to remain quite valid; contrary to the sensationalism propagated in the tabloid media.

By the way, what do you think of the "unconvential" prediction method by McIntosh et al? (as mentioned for instance here https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/02 ... s-arrived/ )
Best, Daniele
Hi Daniele,

So far the data is neutral with regard to the "Termination" theory, with the lower confidence interval of the "termination" theory being nearly identical to the upper confidence level of the ISES prediction. By the end of the year, we should know if Cycle 25 is progressing along the slightly higher ISES prediction or the median of the "new theory" prediction. But to be honest, and as much as I like the movies, I wasn't impressed by the Terminator movie imagery that accompanied the prediction, as it seems rather tabloid in and of itself. And the twitter feed explanation... not very elucidating. If I were to bet real money, I'd go with the ISES prediction, which seems to be based on more solid theoretical ground with good reliability.


Bob


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

Right on prediction it seems to be.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Very close indeed - actual 70.5, predicted 70.0 (using the correct start date and confidence variation level ;-)


ISES June 2022.jpg
ISES June 2022.jpg (372.54 KiB) Viewed 629 times

Curiously, I haven't seen this downward trend from the earlier over-hyped numbers of the previous months mentioned on SW.com :?:

Facts SM.jpg
Facts SM.jpg (110.89 KiB) Viewed 615 times

As of now the smoothed monthly values are trending slightly higher than the relevant ISES prediction, and have led Hathaway and Upton to revise their prediction with a slightly higher Cycle 25 maximum (132 versus 125).

Bob


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by daniele_bonfiglio »

Bob Yoesle wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:29 pm As of now the smoothed monthly values are trending slightly higher than the relevant ISES prediction, and have led Hathaway and Upton to revise =http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts ... prediction with a slightly higher Cycle 25 maximum (132 versus 125).

Bob
Dear Bob,
thank you for the very interesting link to the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction. I have a couple of questions:
1) you mention a revised Cycle 25 maximum of 132 but in this text file http://solarcyclescience.com/bin/predictSSN.txt at the link you provided, the predicted maximum is just below 130. Where did you take the 132 value?
2) what is the relation (if any) between the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction and the -6 month / +10 SSN corrected ISES prediction? I mean, did the ISES panel make use of the Hathaway and Upton model?

By the way, since June I am in charge of a monthly solar activity update for the Italian astronomy magazine Coelum (the latin word for sky).
This is what I wrote for the June report: https://www.coelum.com/appuntamenti/cie ... uglio-2022 (sorry it's written in Italian, but I think you can Google translate it). As you can see I showed the prediction based on the "terminator event" but I also mentioned the confidence interval (+-10 SSN) of the "official" ISES prediction.
For the July report that I am going to prepare in a few days, I plan to show the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction so thank you very much for your help on this! :bow2

Best,
Daniele


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by Bob Yoesle »

Good news!

NOAA has finally adjusted their Solar Cycle Progression page to open with the correct early start and + 10 average sunspot number prediction curve, not the invalid start and mean prediction curve:
The forecast for the current solar cycle is given by the grey line. This represents the upper range issued by the prediction panel in 2019 (see "Details"), starting 6 months earlier and with a higher amplitude (+10) relative to the mean prediction. The initial progression of Cycle 25 is observed to best match this upper bound.
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot revised.png
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot revised.png (145.26 KiB) Viewed 517 times

It appears to help to be a squeaky wheel...


Dear Bob,
thank you for the very interesting link to the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction. I have a couple of questions:
1) you mention a revised Cycle 25 maximum of 132 but in this text file http://solarcyclescience.com/bin/predictSSN.txt at the link you provided, the predicted maximum is just below 130. Where did you take the 132 value?
2) what is the relation (if any) between the revised Hathaway and Upton prediction and the -6 month / +10 SSN corrected ISES prediction? I mean, did the ISES panel make use of the Hathaway and Upton model?
Hi Daniele,

1) The text file shows a peak mean of 129.5, and Hathaway and Upton also got a peak mean of 132 using geomagnetic activity precursors as described here. You'd have to ask them to find out why there is a difference. Be that as it may, the two predictions are pretty close ;-)

2) I believe the +/- 6 month and +/- 10 SSN have been a feature of the prediction confidence intervals for past cycles as well. Indeed, the earlier prediction graphs appear to have +/- 30 SSN upper and lower limits (see graph below).

I also believe Hathaway and Upton are both members of the ISES prediction panel, and Hathaway has been - until he retired - one of the main figures at NASA Marshall Spaceflight & Ames Research Center solar physics staff and responsible for these graphs over the years:

Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.gif
Cycle22Cycle23Cycle24big.gif (579.48 KiB) Viewed 517 times
PredictSSN_23_24_25.jpg
PredictSSN_23_24_25.jpg (516.95 KiB) Viewed 517 times
Last edited by Bob Yoesle on Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by DeepSolar64 »

It looks like SS25 is predicted to outdo SS24 but is still well short of SS23. Time will tell.

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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by marktownley »

Thanks for the updates!


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by AJamesB »


Therefore it is reasonable to conclude the errors are of omission, and are likely deliberate for the "sensationalistic" reasons cited previously.


Bob
I wonder if this person has a boss or board they report too that would like to know an employee is distorting data, and hence potentially eroding trust in their organization?

Unfortunately I've seen this all to much, especially among amatuer astro peeps trying to make a name for themselves or trying to make money off of astrophotography. So, so many deceitful and misleading click-baity title posts I've come acrossed, and even one going so far as to convince a local news station they'd "taken the most detailed image of the sun EVER", as though NASA didn't even exist, lol. And when you try to respectfully correct the mininformation, you get downvoted, yelled at, have a myriad of 'justifications' thrown at you (such as "its okay since it creates more awareness about science!" and the like), etc etc.

Sad that too many are willing to exchange personal integrity and trustworthiness in exchange for a little more attention or money, but that is the world we live in.


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Re: SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE

Post by daniele_bonfiglio »

Dear Bob (and all),
the last few months of solar activity seem to confirm the robustness of the Hathaway and Upton prediction. I am curious: do you have other interesting news on this topic?
Best,
Daniele
PredictSSN_23_24_25.png
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