2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

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JohnW
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2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by JohnW »

Feb 2nd. Those of us who have been following the sunspot activity on the Sun during January 2023 would have expected to see an increase in the official sunspot number for the month. Well the number is 143.6, which is much higher than expected and higher than the December 2022 figure of 113.4. Remember the observed sunspot number is calculated by a special formula (you can look it up). If the current trend continues, Solar Maximum will either happen sooner or be stronger than originally expected–possibly both. It will be interesting to see what happens during February.

The first graph shows progress of the current solar cycle (25): observed monthly sunspot number (thin yellow), observed smoothed monthly sunspot number (thick turquoise) and predicted smoothed monthly sunspot number (magenta crosses).
This graph is provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Space Weather Service and is based on the observed monthly mean sunspot numbers from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. The graph shows that January’s figures are much higher than expected.

The second graph sourced from the Space Weather Predication Centre /NOAA, shows similar figures for the sunspot numbers but has a different prediction line based on a different forecast model to that above.
We will watch with interest as actual numbers come in for each month of this year.
sunspot Feb23.jpg
sunspot Feb23.jpg (157.87 KiB) Viewed 248 times
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot1024_1.jpg
ises-solar-cycle-sunspot1024_1.jpg (83.81 KiB) Viewed 248 times


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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by DeepSolar64 »

WoW, that's an impressive spike in sunspot activity for January. February is beginning much calmer though. I am certainly curious to how SS25 is going to pan out.

Thanks for the info.

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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by Montana »

Great information John :hamster: the spots have calmed down a bit so the peak will even out a bit over the next few weeks. Let's hope it keeps giving these January peaks, I'm enjoying it :)

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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by MAURITS »

Thanks for sharing John.


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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by marktownley »

Thanks for the update John!


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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by Carbon60 »

Good information. Thanks, John.

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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by marktownley »

DeepSolar64 wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 5:37 am WoW, that's an impressive spike in sunspot activity for January. February is beginning much calmer though.
I suspect February will be a dip in the graph.


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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by JohnW »

Thanks Mark - I suspect February's figures will be lower as well.
Regards,
John W


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Re: 2nd Feb Sunspot numbers going up !

Post by rsfoto »

Hi,

If you have not seen it, here another article about the Solar Cycle 25

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/new ... cbytE.html

https://www.facebook.com/spaceweathertrackers


regards Rainer

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